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Dems flip KY State Senate Seat Held BY GOP for 25 years Login/Join 
Now in Florida
Picture of ChicagoSigMan
posted
Democrat Karen Berg beat Republican Bill Ferko in a special election to fill the seat held by Republican Ernie Harris. And it wasn't even close.

Any locals have any insight here? Is this an outlier or something unique going on, or is this a bad sign for November?

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Posts: 6060 | Location: FL | Registered: March 09, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Info Guru
Picture of BamaJeepster
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Jefferson County KY is blue. One of only two blue counties in 2016.






“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
- John Adams
 
Posts: 29408 | Location: In the red hinterlands of Deep Blue VA | Registered: June 29, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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It is in Jefferson County, part of Louisville Jefferson metro area, not exactly a place that has been republican friendly for the last few years. The fact it was Republican held for so long should be a bigger part of the story, not that the Republicans lost it.
 
Posts: 8711 | Registered: January 20, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Now in Florida
Picture of ChicagoSigMan
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by BamaJeepster:
Jefferson County KY is blue. One of only two blue counties in 2016.





Apparently the Senate district also includes Oldham County, which is as red as Jefferson is blue.

And the GOP held the seat for 25 years, so something is going on here...
 
Posts: 6060 | Location: FL | Registered: March 09, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of BamaJeepster
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The district also voted for the democrat governor in the 2018 governor election.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/...rticle243096481.html
quote:
It is considered a competitive race. Democrat Andy Beshear carried the district last year in his winning race for governor over Republican Matt Bevin.


I don't think it's any kind of harbinger for 2020. It was a special election and the dems got more of their voters out in a roughly equal district - the reps have more registered voters but not by a lot.

The assessment going in was that it was a dead heat.

https://louisvillefuture.com/a...ng-louisville-seats/

quote:
Senate District 26: *Ernie Harris (R) vs. Karen Berg (D)

Harris has served in the Senate since the 1995 legislative session, but was nearly kicked out of office in May by his own party, as he only narrowly defeated his challenger in the Republican primary. He will face off next week with Karen Berg, a radiologist for nearly 30 years who won 67 percent of the vote in the Democratic primary.

While there are more registered Republicans in District 26 — encompassing a portion of northeast Louisville and all of Oldham County — Democrats were encouraged by the fact that they had more voters turn out in their primary than Republicans did in their hotly contested primary.

Harris is the chair of the Senate Transportation Committee and has cited his ability to direct road projects in his district, in addition to his support from a large number of business groups and his designation as a policy “MVP” by the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce for three years in a row.

Berg has campaigned on progressive policies that have won her the endorsement of groups like the Fairness Campaign, Planned Parenthood, Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America and many local labor unions. She is for repealing the right-to-work law, opposed to Bevin’s Medicaid waiver and favors expanding gambling and legalizing medical marijuana to help pay for public pensions.

The 15-day pre-election KREF reports showed that Harris spent over $109,000 and had $55,000 left, but Berg had nearly kept pace with the six-term incumbent, spending nearly $92,000 with $5,000 in the tank. Berg cited an internal campaign poll in September to assert that the race is a statistical tie.



“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
- John Adams
 
Posts: 29408 | Location: In the red hinterlands of Deep Blue VA | Registered: June 29, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of 2BobTanner
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KY26 Senate is the far NE portion of dense metro JeffCo and NuLu/Butchertown (all heavily Dem), while that portion of Oldham Co is more Republican but widely dispersed in population (rural). The “white privileged guilt” is heavy in that portion of JeffCo.

The KY Senate is still heavy Repub. What is currently going on in Metro Louisville/JeffCo broke out after many of the mail-in ballots had already been cast. Dems couldn’t even steal their own primary for US Senate nominee for the BLM candidate.

Kentucky remains heavy Trump country, and McConnell will have no problem retaining his seat in November. Kentucky Legislature will remain Republican, as the outlining portions of the State are watching the metro areas of a Louisville and Lexington and are appalled at what’s happening.

The Congress 3rd District is currently represented by Dem John Yarmuth, who has been suspiciously quiet as to the events in the Metro Lou/JeffCo. The entire 3rd Congressional District Is PISSED OFF at Dems. Could even flip, as Yarmuth has been in Congress since 2007.


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LGBFJB

"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." — Mark Twain

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H. L. Mencken
 
Posts: 2692 | Location: Falls of the Ohio River, Kain-tuk-e | Registered: January 13, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of PowerSurge
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I hate polls. But.....according to an OAN poll Trump is up 4 points in Arizona. He won Arizona by four points in 2016. Tells me he’ll be in good shape if we all do our part in Nov.

https://www.oann.com/oan-gravi...-biden-by-4-in-ariz/


———————————————
The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1
 
Posts: 3955 | Location: Northeast Georgia | Registered: November 18, 2017Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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2BobTanner - excellent, cogent analysis.


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"Sooner or later, wherever people go, there's the law. And sooner or later, they find out that God's already been there." -- John Wayne as Chisum
 
Posts: 630 | Location: Kentucky | Registered: September 20, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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