quote:

Originally posted by darthfuster:
[FLASH_VIDEO]<iframe frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dsJjP3He4h8" width="420"></iframe>[/FLASH_VIDEO]

That was a spectacular watch, thanks for posting. The only encouraging part was when one guy mentioned NK leadership is likely very afraid the US and China appear to be on the verge of more cooperation in solving the problem.

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:
Right. In this case, that would require the Chinese to give up on Communism and allow it to happen. Unless we are in a position to pull a Reagan/Gorbechev style upheaval in China, it's not likely to happen.

Not necessarily. Both sides played all sorts of games to bend several European countries (Austria, Finland, Greece, Yugoslavia) one way or the other.

quote:

Originally posted by Strambo:
China need not care about "nation building" the way we do.

True. But they'll want to make sure that they're in control rather than either the US and its allies or Russia - which is just across the way, so to speak. That means that the PLA will have to stay there until some kind of system acceptable to the ChiComs falls into place, or North Korea will no longer be a buffer for them.

quote:

Originally posted by Strambo:
I don't see why it has to be that way. China need not care about "nation building" the way we do (unless I'm missing something?)

Agree; China has only one long term interest / objective - that China is the only nation. They are playing a long game on that route. Any actions they take will support only that objective somehow. ISIS wants only Islam to remain. China wants only China to remain.

Any war with North Korea will be short. Anyone left of the Kim regime will flee to China. Seoul will take heavy casualties and destruction. The two koreas will be united. Reunification will be much worse then that of the two Germanys. Yes, there will be guerrilla warfare.

quote:

Originally posted by darthfuster:
[FLASH_VIDEO/FLASH_VIDEO]

Interesting watch. I can't believe they didn't know the American flag on their food assistance. It's insane also to not know that Titanic and Die Hard are not American movies. How is it possible that they shut down all info in/out of their country.


Part II:

I'm thinking that Kim is obsessed with being removed from power and in his mind the only way to keep that from happening is having a nuclear arsenal. If he can stall everyone until that happens he's safe and in the big leagues.

quote:

Originally posted by Icabod:
Any war with North Korea will be short. Anyone left of the Kim regime will flee to China. Seoul will take heavy casualties and destruction. The two koreas will be united. Reunification will be much worse then that of the two Germanys. Yes, there will be guerrilla warfare.

If the US is fully prepared, I suspect that the war will be so short that little artillery will be able to hit Seoul. The US and SK probably know where just about every artillery tube along the border is, and have those numbers dialed in. I would expect a massive Time on Target, as well as knocking out all the SAM sites and anything else of tactical use as fast as humanly possible.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: c1steve,

quote:

I watched that video. North Koreans think the US fears NK? Guess again.

Exactly. We don't fear them. I think the fact that they are so isolated from reality that what they believe about us is an evil caricature out to consume all that is righteous combined with a deep seeded belief in their own power and potential and an unquestioning devotion to dictator and country all assemble to create a society willing to make a suicidal mistake. It all depends on what an immature madman decides. I am certain if he says it's go time and they have the capability, his people will happily go to war with all that entails in a lunatic ego maniac's mind.

In this current admin. we will not back down, nor do I believe we should. I doubt war is certain since Un Jong-tubby likely still doesn't want it. But he is young. He's got time and we change our minds fairly quickly. So he can wait until he thinks we are weaker and they are more capable. Horrifying as it is to consider, I honestly would not be surprised if one day NK launched a nuke against the mainland or one of our allies, because genuine crazy is unpredictable.

So here's a dumb question.

Why don't we just tell China they can invade and keep North Korea? I would think south Korea would benefit from a more stable neighbor. They have essesntially created an alliance with SK back in November. The NorKs can be refugees wherever they want to go after their cleaned up and fed etc? Region is now stabilized.

What am I missing besides "giving" China a country? I'm sure there's somethign I missed. I just don't see how China is a worse neighbor than a lunatic with a nuke.

quote:

Originally posted by Deqlyn:
So here's a dumb question.

Why don't we just tell China they can invade and keep North Korea? I would think south Korea would benefit from a more stable neighbor. They have essesntially created an alliance with SK back in November. The NorKs can be refugees wherever they want to go after their cleaned up and fed etc? Region is now stabilized.

What am I missing besides "giving" China a country? I'm sure there's somethign I missed. I just don't see how China is a worse neighbor than a lunatic with a nuke.

China desperately wants Taiwan, I suspect if they had NK, that they would go after SK as well. Fortunately Taiwan has a water barrier, but without it China probably would have invaded a long time ago.

If the balloon goes up, it will be the most violent 24 hours in the history of warfare with many S Korean casualties. If we are going to do it, we had better hurry before they get deliverable nukes. Reconnaissance is ongoing 24/7. Our troops have been on a war footing there since the Armistice, and they are locked and cocked. The motto of our troops there is "We fight tonight". Also don't discount the S. Korean military-they are a well trained and ferocious fighting force. It feels like we are edging closer to a shooting war.

Pulling American dependents out of S. Korea would signal the North that we are on the brink of hostilities. Do you play that card first, or just hit them out of the blue?

The frightening thing about the political situation is that they have been blowing smoke up their own ass for so long they do not understand how small and poor they are in the overall scheme of things. Most of them really believe they are all powerful. Anyone inside willing to tell the leader the truth ends up dead. More significant in bringing them to reason is the Juche religion, which holds that the little bastard is the Son of God.

Best case scenario is that some non-believer inside takes the little bastard out. There certainly are plenty of his folks who have a grudge or a good reason.

^^^ That's why it would be nice if the ChiComs would step into the tar patch instead of us. Li'l Kim seems to be perfectly aware that the ChiComs could do this; per news accounts at least, the shortest road for a senior Nork officer to take to getting executed is to be seen as having developed a close relationship directly with the ChiComs rather than through Li'l Kim.

quote:

What am I missing besides "giving" China a country?

The Koreans have been fighting off the Chinese for centuries. That's why I'd (perversely, perhaps) like to see China try what you suggest. I think they'd be so bogged down in such a mess that they would lose the time, resources and stability at home that they need in order to screw with the rest of their neighbors. Remember, the only source for status and groceries that a lot of Norks have comes from being in the Nork military - as was the case with oh-so-many Iraqi Ba'athists. Those in the Nork military now have organization, access to weapons and local knowledge. Some would kowtow to the PRC, others would go up into the mountains to fight for as long as they could hold out.

It is not in Kim’s interest to educate his people on the scale of our military might. It is more likely, if it is revealed at all, that their news is more along the lines of “See those stupid Americans, they can’t sail anywhere without their ships running into somebody”

Having a God as a leader and being on a comparable military footing (in their minds) the idea of attacking and winning to them is completely plausible.

No matter how the leadership is removed, bloody, bloodless, nuclear or conventional, the people are going to go into a state of mental meltdown once defeated. Recovery at that point will take decades (like it has already taken to get to this one).

What North Koreans think: There are 3 types:
1. true believers. There are a lot of them, because NoKor really does maintain an Orwellian propaganda machine and they have never heard any other side of the story.

2. People who have an inkling about the outside world through radio broadcasts, smuggled CD and DVD, etc. These people STAY QUIET, because Kim really does kill anyone with any dissent at all.

3. Probably a few top leadership that know what is going on, but again, want to keep their heads attached.

==> What the North Koreans think is completely irrelevant to anything. There is one megalomaniacal madman in charge. His thinking is the only thing that matters.

China:
China does not really "want" North Korea. They were allies only when China and NoKor were both communist ideologues. Now, China is not even really communist, they just have a nominally communist "Gang in Charge". They learned about how well capitalism really works from us.
So China and Nokor are "allies" only in that NoKor provides a buffer between China and South Korea. The "Gang in Charge" of China doesn't want examples of human freedom so easily observable.

So it would seem that China has some incentive to control Kim, but China does not really have the capability to control him any more than we do. Sanctions, etc... China may cooperate with us, but we cannot DEPEND on China. They are going to do what is best for China, and that is "let the Americans be scared" and spend a lot of money on defense, etc.

That's where Li'l Kim's nukes and Trump's election threw the PRC's calculations out of whack. Both the Chinese and the Russians seem to be convinced that Trump is willing to launch an attack on North Korea to deal with Li'l Kim's nukes. "What is best for China" may no longer be to allow Li'l Kim to stay in power because Li'l Kim is providing not only a pretext but an existential threat to the US and its allies that justifies going into North Korea to take out Li'l Kim's nukes. Thus it may actually make more sense for the Chinese to go into North Korea and deal with Li'l Kim rather than let the US and its allies go into North Korea to deal with Li'l Kim. The status quo was good for the ChiComs, but it's beginning to look like the status quo can no longer be maintained.

Besides, if you were the ChiComs, would you want to trust a loon like Li'l Kim with nuclear weapons?

It seems to me a strong diplomatic move from Trump would be to start talking about putting nuclear capability into South Korea to offset the NORK's. I'd add Japan to the list, but culturally that is probably a bad move. Still, China would not be too pleased if Kim is the one to bring nuclear capability so close to their border. That just might put enough heat on Beijing to force their hand into action against Kim.

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
That's where Li'l Kim's nukes and Trump's election threw the PRC's calculations out of whack.

Yes. I think you are right.
China MAY start to think that it is better for China to remove Kim. But it still depends on the BELIEF that Trump is really ready to act militarily.
So we have to continue to actually plan to remove Kim and not depend on China. If they decide to act first, or help us...fine. Just don't depend on it.

The Chinese certainly went bok over South Korea's acceptance of the THAAD anti-missile system, but the South Koreans still kept it. If Trump started making noise about putting nukes there as DrDan suggested, I think the Chinese would have to treat that as a credible potential problem.

(If anyone's interested, take a look at http://www.voanews.com/a/china...meeting/4165368.html)

Other than that, yeah, it's hard to see how Trump's statements would be credible to the Chinese without the US and its allies continuing to develop plans and abilities to take out Li'l Kim whether or not the People's Republic of China deigned to be the solution or a part of the solution. The Iranians certainly got cocky about their nuke program when it became clear that neither O nor our European allies were serious about acting against them militarily.

ETA:

It looks like the ChiComs are putting pressure on Taiwan. The article (from Newsweek, dated today) says that this is part of a plan to retake Taiwan by 2020, but I have a hard time seeing current patrols and exercises by the PRC as anything other than a threat to Trump: "Go into North Korea, and we'll take Taiwan while you're distracted and committed elsewhere." The ChiComs may consider Taiwan unfinished buisness, but it's 100 miles away. North Korea is right next door.

http://www.newsweek.com/intens...n-experts-say-752114

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Il Cattivo,