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Chinese Experts: War On Korean Peninsula May Come Sooner Than Later
Jennie Oh, UPI 12/15/2017

Chinese regional experts have warned that an outbreak of war on the Korean Peninsula looks likelier than ever, despite Seoul and Beijing's agreement last week that such a conflict cannot be tolerated.

Chinese daily Global Times quoted Shi Yinhong, Professor of Renmin University, who said, "The possibility of war breaking out on the Korean peninsula has become the highest in several decades," point to the "vicious cycle of threats" between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Shi said that China can only delay an all-out clash between them as it is too late to turn the situation around. "China can only delay war, hoping that the detonator of the time bomb that is North Korea can be removed," he said.

Wang Hongguang, former Deputy Commander of the Nanjing Military Region, suggested war could occur much earlier than expected, Chosun Ilbo reported. "It could break out tonight. It may come before March next year when South Korea and the United States begin their annual military exercise," he said. Wang cited a local newspaper article that provided a guideline for Chinese citizens in case of a nuclear explosion, saying this was "a signal conveyed to the North telling it to prepare for the coming war."

Putting aside the timing, Professor of Nanjing University Zhu Feng believes Beijing must brace itself for war. As tensions continue to escalate in the region, a "soft-landing" solution is impossible, he said, adding that "China must prepare psychologically and practically for a nuclear conflict, a radioactive fallout and an atomic explosion."

Last week, the Chinese navy began conducting a four-day live-fire exercise off North Korean waters while the air force held simulated anti-missile drills with Russia, The South China Morning Post reported. The joint exercise was aimed at repelling ballistic and cruise missile threats in the region, according to Beijing's defense ministry.

Original text at http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Wo...later/1711513560101/

It sounds to me as though China's contemplating taking out Li'l Kim before we get the chance. If so, good - let them deal with the fallout, and let them bleed themselves out trying to actually hold North Korea.
 
Posts: 27291 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Equal Opportunity Mocker
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So are our resident experts saying that this shooting war will be conventional, tactical nukes, all out nuclear war, or what?

I don't see us entering unilaterally into a nuclear conflict, but I sure pray we don't decide to start a shooting war and put soldiers in the trenches back in that God forsaken country. Especially with the chicoms next door waiting to meddle.


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Posts: 6389 | Location: Mogadishu on the Mississippi | Registered: February 26, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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That's kinda the point. It looks like the ChiComs are getting set to meddle before we have to - and assume all of the risks that come with meddling.
 
Posts: 27291 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
That's kinda the point. It looks like the ChiComs are getting set to meddle before we have to - and assume all of the risks that come with meddling.


We're still stuck in it, unless they are going to secretly evac 30,000 US troops and/or N Korea doesn't fire on the South. I prefer if we are at war, we make first strike. Even more prefer not to go to war.



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Posts: 20756 | Location: Loudoun County, Virginia | Registered: December 27, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
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We have to worry about nuclear fallout in South Korea. But if the attack is coming from Communist China, why would we have to be involved? All of those guns pointed at Seoul would be useless when it comes to countering an attack from the other side of the Yalu River.
 
Posts: 27291 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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This is a confounding issue.

Hard to understand what China gains by maintaining historically strong ties with NK as they are such a de-stabilizing force in the Region.

Unless the 'real fear' is a re-united and even stronger democratic Korea.

If it remained 'conventional' - and did not involve an additional 1,000,000 Chinese combatants - I really don't see any major issues taking down NK Forces. Overnight? No. But it wouldn't take years and end in a stalemate.

Precision guided munitions we have developed and perfected over the last 25 years have changed the game IMO.

And South Korea's military from everything I have read is no slouch.

China's involvement is the Wild Card.

Just have to wonder if the juice is worth the squeeze.

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I just hope Seoul doesn't get leveled again. 6th largest city in the world, I believe.


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Posts: 8228 | Location: Arizona | Registered: August 17, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by Skins2881:We're still stuck in it, unless they are going to secretly evac 30,000 US troops and/or N Korea doesn't fire on the South.


Seems like a good idea. We've overstayed our duty by about 70 years already.
 
Posts: 8944 | Location: The Red part of Minnesota | Registered: October 06, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
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Hard to understand what China gains by maintaining strong ties with NK as they are such a de-stabilizing force in the Region.

Unless the 'real fear' is a re-united and even stronger democratic Korea.

That's the apparent payoff for the ChiComs to attack North Korea before we launch an attack of our own. They remove the 'destabilizing element' that would justify an attack on North Korea by ourselves and our allies, but keep a buffer zone between their border and our allies in South Korea. IOW, it's all about the ChiComs keeping control of the situation.

The problem is, of course, that the Norks are no more fond of the Chinese than they are of anyone else. If China does go ahead and attack North Korea to take out Li'l Kim, Li'l Kim's nukes, or both, then the ChiComs run a tremendous risk of getting bogged down in a long, expensive and bloody counterinsurgency war against the remaining Kim loyalists and any Koreans who think it's their patriotic duty to resist the foreign invaders - any foreign invaders.

The biggest long-term worry for us is that it'll slow down the eventual reunification of Korea. Unless, of course, the diplomats work out some kind of arrangement where Korea plays the same role that Austria used to back during the Cold War.
 
Posts: 27291 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I would suspect that in Trump's recent Asia tour the backroom conversation was something like "Kim must go. You can either take him out yourself, or be warned to stay the hell out of it when we do it."

Yes, it could be very bloody. Will it be more bloody or less bloody if we wait ?


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Posts: 6641 | Registered: September 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:The biggest long-term worry for us is that it'll slow down the eventual reunification of Korea.


That process seems to be going about as well as the Israeli/Palestinian agreements. I don't expect to see either in my lifetime.
 
Posts: 8944 | Location: The Red part of Minnesota | Registered: October 06, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Gracie Allen is my
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Fair enough, but did you ever expect to see Germany reunited? That took, IIRC, about eleven years once the commies got out of the way.
 
Posts: 27291 | Location: Deep in the heart of the brush country, and closing on that #&*%!?! roadrunner. Really. | Registered: February 05, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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^^^^^

Right. In this case, that would require the Chinese to give up on Communism and allow it to happen. Unless we are in a position to pull a Reagan/Gorbechev style upheaval in China, it's not likely to happen.
 
Posts: 8944 | Location: The Red part of Minnesota | Registered: October 06, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
goodheart
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I can see a Finlandized North Korea as an acceptable buffer for China, and acceptable to the US compared with the status quo.


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Posts: 18017 | Location: One hop from Paradise | Registered: July 27, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I wouldn't be surprised if they did something.

Seems like China would be looking for an opportunity to be in a real conflict to actually expose their troops to battle.
 
Posts: 7016 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Seems like China has been preparing for a large scale war, not peace.

How far down will the global pants be when war breaks out?




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Posts: 12683 | Location: In the gilded cage | Registered: December 09, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peace through
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It would be suicide for North Korea. It would be the end of the stupid shit petty dictator (who didn't even earn his position, he was born into it). The party- speaking both literally and figuratively- would be over, and the stupid dictator is just smart enough to understand this.

There will be no war, despite the dramatic pronouncements from so-called experts.

If the stupid dictator of NK is insane or just wants to die, he should try something, but no matter what happens, it won't touch the United States. NK has far more to lose than anyone else, because NK would be, for all practical purposes, gone.

So, I am not impressed with the melodramatics.
 
Posts: 107258 | Registered: January 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
quote:
Hard to understand what China gains by maintaining strong ties with NK as they are such a de-stabilizing force in the Region.

Unless the 'real fear' is a re-united and even stronger democratic Korea.


The problem is, of course, that the Norks are no more fond of the Chinese than they are of anyone else. If China does go ahead and attack North Korea to take out Li'l Kim, Li'l Kim's nukes, or both, then the ChiComs run a tremendous risk of getting bogged down in a long, expensive and bloody counterinsurgency war against the remaining Kim loyalists and any Koreans who think it's their patriotic duty to resist the foreign invaders - any foreign invaders.



I don't see why it has to be that way. China need not care about "nation building" the way we do (unless I'm missing something?)

Why can't they just decapitate the NK regime and let them sort it out? A NK in internal chaos, leaderless and with their military freshly hammered, is no longer an immediate threat to anyone. I'd bet a saner, gentler, commie military dictatorship would emerge. If they talk sweetly enough, might even get sanctions lifted and some potatoes to eat.




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delicately calloused
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You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier
 
Posts: 29607 | Location: Highland, Ut. | Registered: May 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peace through
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I watched that video. North Koreans think the US fears NK? Guess again.

Also, at about the 5 or 6 minute mark, one kid talks about going to school in NK wearing a shirt that said USA because he didn't know better. He was made to stand in front of several hundred students in the school. He was admonished and his father was summoned by some NK government bureau to be lectured to.
In other words, the exact same thing happened to him as if he had worn a USA t-shirt in a Los Angeles county school. Roll Eyes


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