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Wuhan-virus thread for the optimists: Step inside to seek or share inspiration Login/Join 
His diet consists of black
coffee, and sarcasm.
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quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
This is a dry run for a "real" pandemic that is both highly contagious and highly lethal. Imagine a cross between Wuhan and Ebola. Yep, this is a dry run.

I know I am reconsidering some things I need to hoard more.

Did you read the title of this thread? Roll Eyes
 
Posts: 23441 | Location: Johnson City/Elizabethton, TN | Registered: April 28, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Silver lining starting a new job this week and instead of hit
The ground running learn as you go, I will have the chance to do some training and get the kinks ironed out before going full speed
 
Posts: 2547 | Location: Finally free in AZ! | Registered: February 14, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Get Off My Lawn
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To my wife:

I can't think of another person I'd rather go through this insanity with. We are lock step in everything; prepping, finances, guns & ammo, mindset about the virus, etc. We have never been through a situation like this and Thank God she is my wife.



"I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965
 
Posts: 12839 | Location: Texas | Registered: May 13, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Interesting positive outlook on the Coronavirus recovery by Joe Mozingo of the LA Times:

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

quote:


A health worker checks a patient’s temperature at a COVID-19 screening station at Watts Health Center. A Stanford Nobel laureate who crunched the numbers predicts the outbreak will result in fewer deaths than many experts have predicted.(Irfan Khan/Los Angeles Times)

By JOE MOZINGO
STAFF WRITER 
MARCH 22, 2020 2:03 PM

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.
While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.

Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. In his view, the fact that new cases were being identified at a slower rate was more telling than the number of new cases itself. It was an early sign that the trajectory of the outbreak had shifted.
Think of the outbreak as a car racing down an open highway, he said. Although the car was still gaining speed, it’s not accelerating as rapidly as before.

“This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.

Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.

This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.

A medical staff member disinfects equipment in a hospital ward that was used to treat patients with COVID-19. With cases falling, it will revert to being a public ward. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

Now Levitt, who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry for developing complex models of chemical systems, is seeing similar turning points in other nations, even ones that did not instill the draconian isolation measures that China did.

He analyzed data from 78 countries that reported more than 50 new cases of COVID-19 every day and sees “signs of recovery” in many of them. He’s not focusing on the total number of cases in a country, but on the number of new cases identified every day — and especially on the percentage growth in that number from one day to the next.

“Numbers are still noisy but there are clear signs of slowed growth.”

Confirmed COVID-19 cases by country as of 6 p.m. Friday. Click to see the L.A. Times COVID-19 tracker.(Compiled by L.A. Times Graphics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Johns Hopkins CSSE, California Department of Public Health and reports from county public health officials.)

In Iran, for example, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases remained relatively flat last week, going from 1,133 on Monday to 1,028 on Sunday. Although that’s still a lot of new cases, the pattern suggests the outbreak there has reached a stable plateau, and is on the cusp of getting better.

Of course, recovering from an initial outbreak doesn’t mean the virus won’t come back: China is now fighting to stop new waves of infection coming in from places where the virus is spreading out of control. Other countries are bound to face the same problem as well.

Levitt acknowledges that his figures are messy, and that the official case counts in many areas are too low because testing is spotty. But even with incomplete data, “a consistent decline means there’s some factor at work that is not just noise in the numbers,” he said.
In other words, as long as the reasons for the inaccurate case counts remain the same, it’s still useful to compare them from one day to the next.

The trajectory of deaths backs up his findings, he said, since it follows the same basic trends as the new confirmed cases. So do data from outbreaks in confined environments, such as the one on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Out of 3,711 people on board, 712 were infected and eight died.

This unintended experiment in coronavirus spread will help researchers estimate the number of fatalities that would occur in a fully infected population, Levitt said. For instance, the Diamond Princess data allowed him to estimate that being exposed to the new coronavirus doubles a person’s risk of dying in the next two months. Most people have an extremely low risk of death in a two-month period, so that risk remains extremely low even when doubled.

That doesn’t mean complacency is acceptable. Levitt said the social-distancing mandates are critical — particularly the ban on large gatherings — because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it and a vaccine is still many months away. “This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies.”

Getting vaccinated against the flu is important because a coronavirus outbreak that strikes in the middle of a flu epidemic is much more likely to overwhelm hospitals and increases the odds that the coronavirus goes undetected. This was probably a factor in Italy, a country with a strong anti-vaccine movement, he said.

But he also blames the media for causing unnecessary panic by focusing on the relentless increase in the cumulative number of cases and spotlighting celebrities who contract the virus. By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

He fears the public health measures that have shut down large swaths of the economy could cause their own health catastrophe, as lost jobs lead to poverty and hopelessness. Time and again, researchers have seen that suicide rates go up when the economy spirals down.

The virus can grow exponentially only when it is undetected and no one is acting to control it, Levitt said. That’s what happened in South Korea, when it ripped through a closed-off cult that refused to report the illness.

“People need to be considered heroes for announcing they have this virus,” he said.

A guard holds a thermal gun to check the body temperature of visitors at the entrance of a restaurant area in Shanghai.(Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

The goal needs to be better early detection — not just through testing but perhaps with body temperature surveillance, which China is implementing — and immediate social isolation.

While the COVID-19 fatality rate appears to be significantly higher than that of the flu, Levitt says it is quite simply put, “not the end of the world.”

“The real situation is not as nearly as terrible as they make it out to be,” he said.

Joe Mozingo
Joe Mozingo is a projects reporter for the Los Angeles Times.
 
Posts: 80 | Location: Colorado | Registered: August 28, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Benny,
I'm not an Optimist, nor a Pessimist, but a staunch realist.

You, jljones, and a lot others here went through the same "schools of hard knocks". We've been through good times, we've been through bad.

We know how to "Embrace the Suck". We've BT/DT, and we have the scars to prove it, and we've done it well.

What's gotten me through?
Short term, achievable goals. Make it to lunch. Make it to dinner. Focusing on making it to the end of the block, then the end of the next block, then to the end of the next... Sooner or later, you finished the marathon by making it block by block.

The other thing is-
LAUGH.

Laugh at something, someone, anything, laugh mostly at yourself.

Right now, I'm in charge of people. People doing a tough job in a tough place and at a tough time.
Outside of keeping them out of trouble, doing the right thing, and making sure they get home in one piece...
I try to make others laugh too.
Laugh at something, someone, anything, and laugh at themselves (and me as well).

Enjoy the small moments. The moments that, at the time are meaningless, but later on are moments you'll never forget. The moments with those people around you that mean the most.

We've been through some tough stuff, so at the end of the day, we know how bad it can get. Today wasn't all that bad. I didn't have to walk anywhere with a heavy pack on my back, I wasn't cold, wet, or tired. If I got hungry, there's a good restaurant close by. Hell, I didn't get shot at today! So we know it can get a lot worse.

And we can always say "Today wasn't as bad at that one time in..... Remember that day? That day really sucked!"


_____________________________________________________________________

"When its time to shoot, shoot. Dont talk!"

“What the government is good at is collecting taxes, taking away your freedoms and killing people. It’s not good at much else.” —Author Tom Clancy
 
Posts: 6034 | Location: Attempting to keep the noise down around Midway Airport | Registered: February 14, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Legalize the Constitution
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All I can do is provide a link, rather than embed the video, but Tucker Carlson closed his show last night with this guy. Bryan Morin owns a pizzeria in NJ, he took out a $50K loan in order to continue to pay his employees.

Video Link


__________________________________________________________
I just get up every day and don’t let the old man in.
- Clint Eastwood
 
Posts: 9455 | Location: Wyoming | Registered: January 10, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Originally posted by TMats:
All I can do is provide a link, rather than embed the video, but Tucker Carlson closed his show last night with this guy. Bryan Morin owns a pizzeria in NJ, he took out a $50K loan in order to continue to pay his employees.

Video Link


Thank you very much for posting this. Definitely needed and appreciated!




quote:
Balzé Halzé:
now I see that you're about as bright as a black hole, and twice as dense. Good lord.
The “lol” thread
 
Posts: 1615 | Location: Staring down at you with disdain, from the spooky mountaintop castle.  | Registered: November 20, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Prepared for the Worst, Providing the Best
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I've been encouraged by how the people in my community have been reacting to this. Sure, there's some panic buying, but folks are watching out for each other, trying to help out small businesses and those worst affected, and I haven't seen any violence over food or supplies yet.

As for me personally, I've been enjoying time with my wife and kids. They're off school, so we have been getting e-learning done in the morning for the older 3 (1st, 3rd, and 6th grade), then we have all afternoon to hang out. Today we took the dog on a long walk outside, and the oldest and I hit up the gun club for a little trigger time.

My wife dumped all the legos out on a blanket in the middle of the living room, and the kids have been getting hours of entertainment out of that. My 3rd grader in particular has put together some pretty amazing stuff. So far she has a walrus, a dragon, and a rhino...

 
Posts: 3508 | Location: In the Cornfields | Registered: May 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Posts: 7525 | Registered: September 26, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by 92fstech:
My wife dumped all the legos out on a blanket in the middle of the living room, and the kids have been getting hours of entertainment out of that. My 3rd grader in particular has put together some pretty amazing stuff. So far she has a walrus, a dragon, and a rhino...


Okay, I have to give bonus points for the expression on the walrus. Rhino looks innocent, or at least he hasn't confessed yet. Those are cool.

I've been doing the same thing for weeks with my nephew. First we made a few cars. Then I made a tank to blow up his car. He made an airplane and a bigger tank to bomb and smash my tank. I told him to pause the action and we could build an army. We built all kinds of tanks, jets, half tracks, airplanes, artillery... suddenly, we ran out of jets and airplanes.



My other Sig is a Steyr...
 
Posts: 5401 | Location: Somewhere looking for ammo that nobody has at a place I haven't been to for a pistol I couldn't live without... | Registered: December 02, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Prepared for the Worst, Providing the Best
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I've been doing the same thing for weeks with my nephew. First we made a few cars. Then I made a tank to blow up his car. He made an airplane and a bigger tank to bomb and smash my tank. I told him to pause the action and we could build an army. We built all kinds of tanks, jets, half tracks, airplanes, artillery... suddenly, we ran out of jets and airplanes.


Yeah, my boys have been a little more militaristic as well, lol. There's a whole Navy lined up in front of the fireplace, a few forts, and yesterday they were building siege towers Big Grin.
 
Posts: 3508 | Location: In the Cornfields | Registered: May 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Some positive news:

We have several FB pages for our work group. In one of the groups, someone posted that his buddy and his buddy's wife started a course of zpack and hydrochloroquine yesterday and overnight, their symptoms had decreased by 70%. I know there are some side effects and risks with these meds, but at least it's good news!!



"If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne

"Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24
 
Posts: 7299 | Location: NW Houston | Registered: April 04, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Posts: 4569 | Registered: July 06, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I was reflecting today as I was out on my run, and this is really my own private utopia.

1. The state is on lockdown, so while we are still free to privately go out and enjoy the weather, my wife isn't allowed to plan a bunch of unwanted social obligations that I have to attend or plot ways to avoid.

2. I can still take the boat out and go fishing, and my kids are home so they can come too (no concerns about social distancing on the lake).

3. My gun club is private, so I can still go shoot by myself or with the kids.

4. Plenty of reloading supplies in the basement to keep me busy, and since they've started rationing, there's food in the stores again, so we're not going to starve.

5. All of the stores selling stuff that I actually care about are still open. In fact most places are still open, just with reduced hours (sucks for us nightshifters, but I can pack my lunch). Our major local industry is medical, so all of those folks are still at work. Many are doing better business than normal. I think our local economic impact will be mild.

6. In a few months a bunch of people are going to be dead, so if I'm not one of them (or even if I am!) I won't have to deal with as many slow people driving around on the roads during the day.

7. I'm still telling myself that there's a chance this will make zombies.

What's not to like?
 
Posts: 3508 | Location: In the Cornfields | Registered: May 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Yeah, that M14 video guy...
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Thanks to all of you that have kept this thread going. I have been off the board recently as I either had the Wu-Flu or the regular flu. I've been fever free for two days and today I'm finally up and moving about.

My job says I have to stay away for a week after symptoms disappear, so I'd have to go back to work mid-week next week.

My mom seems to have dodged whatever I had (she's 79). My wife works at the hospital and she hasn't caught anything yet. They aren't seeing the big wave of patients they were expecting.

Thanks again for all who've shared the good things they see out of this and sharing about the random acts of kindness.

Tony.


Owner, TonyBen, LLC, Type-01 FFL
www.tonybenm14.com (Site under construction).
e-mail: tonyben@tonybenm14.com
 
Posts: 3684 | Location: USA | Registered: February 13, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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^^^^^
Glad you're back on your feet, benny!! Mother just turned 85 and she's flipping this thing the bird. Smile She's a tough one, that mother of mine!! Smile

quote:
Originally posted by TigerDore:
Soooooooo.....you get the BJ too??? Big Grin Big Grin Big Grin



"If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne

"Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24
 
Posts: 7299 | Location: NW Houston | Registered: April 04, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Prepared for the Worst, Providing the Best
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Thanks to all of you that have kept this thread going. I have been off the board recently as I either had the Wu-Flu or the regular flu. I've been fever free for two days and today I'm finally up and moving about.


Glad to hear you and yours are doing well! Hang in there, this will pass.
 
Posts: 3508 | Location: In the Cornfields | Registered: May 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Here’s one for you that struck me today.

There is tremendous amount of innovation in progress in attempts to mitigate the problems of the virus, care of patients, remote work and school, small business getting creative in ways to keep revenue flowing. Some of is good. Some...so-so.

When it’s all over, opportunity will be there for people to take up the better ideas and run with them.


--
I always prefer reality when I can figure out what it is.
JALLEN 10/18/18
 
Posts: 2012 | Location: Roswell, GA | Registered: March 10, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Prepared for the Worst, Providing the Best
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Originally posted by SigJacket:
Here’s one for you that struck me today.

There is tremendous amount of innovation in progress in attempts to mitigate the problems of the virus, care of patients, remote work and school, small business getting creative in ways to keep revenue flowing. Some of is good. Some...so-so.

When it’s all over, opportunity will be there for people to take up the better ideas and run with them.


I've been very impressed with the President's approach in trying to get government out of the way and let the people that actually know how to build stuff get working on solving these problems. I get that it's nowhere near the same scale, but it's kinda reminiscent of the way American industry saved this country in WW2. And they've gotten spooled up FAST!

The counties just north of us have a lot of RV manufacturers. Obviously, that industry is not booming in an environment like this, nor is it essential. I heard today that several of those companies are switching over production to building ventilators and other necessary equipment...as are some of the GM plants in Kokomo to the south of us.

While DeBlasio, Cuomo, and their ilk can't do anything other than bitch about what they need, and how they're not getting enough support from the feds, I'm proud of how my state is trying to keep as many people working as possible, and endeavoring to be part of the solution not part of the problem.
 
Posts: 3508 | Location: In the Cornfields | Registered: May 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Legalize the Constitution
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Saw this guy on Stuart Varney’s program yesterday. Oddly enough, this guy also owns a pizza business (reference, the guy I posted above who took out a line of credit to continue to pay his employees). He is donating pizzas—a lot of pizzas, to health care providers on the front lines in the fight against the Virus.

Michael Lastoria and “Hero Kitchens”


__________________________________________________________
I just get up every day and don’t let the old man in.
- Clint Eastwood
 
Posts: 9455 | Location: Wyoming | Registered: January 10, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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