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Missile Defense Agency successfully intercepts ICBM target Login/Join 
women dug his snuff
and his gallant stroll
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
...is designed to intercept a ICBM BEFORE it's MIRV's separate at the apex of it's flight path.

Incorrect. The interceptor in this test is called GMD, Ground-Based Mid-Course Defense. It is designed to intercept the target object after it has separated from its booster, but has yet to reach the terminal phase of it's flight.

This test has been in the works for more than two years. At least the first I started hearing about it and working on it was roughly two years ago. All previous GMD test flight dates have been relatively secret. There are some clues that give observant people clues to an upcoming flight. Even as long ago as a few months ago, the test flight date was FOUO and discussed internally in generalities. A few weeks ago I saw a news article that speculated the flight test was imminent. Then a few days ago the day of the test flight was released for public consumption. If you think this wasn't done to show certain people our capabilities, you're crazy.
 
Posts: 10823 | Registered: August 12, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Big Stack
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What I was pointing out is that this system is still in development, as it has been for almost twenty years.

If Li'l Kim develops ICBM capability in the short term (say next year or two) and is crazy enough to launch at us, knowing the capability of this system (and it's limitations), it may not save our ass. Yes, we can fry NK to a radioactive crisp in response. But it won't save tens of millions of Americans from being killed.

quote:
Ground-based Midcourse Defense
 
Posts: 21240 | Registered: November 05, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Freethinker
Picture of sigfreund
posted Hide Post
I have never understood the, “But it’s not perfect,” criticism of any defensive measure as if that was some profound observation that should cause everyone to nod sagely and soberly, and—implied at least—should cause us to just give up: “Well, we can’t protect everyone, so we shouldn’t even try to protect some.”

Armor doesn’t protect us from all threats, whether it’s handgun or rifle fire, RPGs, IEDs, or any other sort of assault.
Vaccinations aren’t 100% effective even against the diseases they’re developed for, and certainly not against all the rest.
Brushing our teeth and flossing every day doesn’t absolutely guarantee freedom from caries or gum disease.
Fire extinguishers won’t necessarily keep our houses from burning down.
Eat well, exercise properly, look after your health as best we can, and die anyway.

If someone fires nuclear missiles at New York and Los Angeles and the ones fired at NYC are defeated but the ones fired at LA aren’t, what happens? Millions may die, but millions may live that wouldn’t if a 50%-effective system hadn’t been in place.




6.4/93.6

“Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something.”
— Plato
 
Posts: 47408 | Location: 10,150 Feet Above Sea Level in Colorado | Registered: April 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ethics, antics,
and ballistics
Picture of Dtech
posted Hide Post
Thinking logically, it would make sense for the system to be designed to launch more than one interceptor vehicle at the same target to assure destruction in the event of a real threat of a single or small number of missiles. Obviously not as efficient as a 1 to 1 kill ratio but would still be more effective none the less. Besides, including the statics of early failures doesn't really speak accurately to the improvements that have been made. Obviously not knowing the specifics of when and what if any changes were made for each test, it would seem that the most recent four launches would be a better indicator of the effectiveness of the interceptor rather than including the first four. Pretty much every engineering project has more failures in early development than later once the failure data has been used to make improvements.


-Dtech
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"I've got a life to live, people to love, and a God to serve!" - sigmonkey

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Posts: 4413 | Location: Central Florida | Registered: April 03, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Big Stack
posted Hide Post
Specifically, with nuclear missiles defending cities (as opposed to hardened targets like bunkers, missile silos, etc.) either it's perfect or it's useless. An enemy that has the capability can target enough missiles and decoys to get a very high leverage factor against the defense that if the defense isn't perfect, there's going to be leakage.

If he launched 10 missiles against LA, we shot down 8, but two got through (with likely seven figure casualties), would that be considered a success?

Now I'm not saying we should not try and perfect this technology. but we can't depend on it until it is perfected (which at this point it very much isn't.)

quote:
Originally posted by sigfreund:
I have never understood the, “But it’s not perfect,” criticism of any defensive measure as if that was some profound observation that should cause everyone to nod sagely and soberly, and—implied at least—should cause us to just give up: “Well, we can’t protect everyone, so we shouldn’t even try to protect some.”

Armor doesn’t protect us from all threats, whether it’s handgun or rifle fire, RPGs, IEDs, or any other sort of assault.
Vaccinations aren’t 100% effective even against the diseases they’re developed for, and certainly not against all the rest.
Brushing our teeth and flossing every day doesn’t absolutely guarantee freedom from caries or gum disease.
Fire extinguishers won’t necessarily keep our houses from burning down.
Eat well, exercise properly, look after your health as best we can, and die anyway.

If someone fires nuclear missiles at New York and Los Angeles and the ones fired at NYC are defeated but the ones fired at LA aren’t, what happens? Millions may die, but millions may live that wouldn’t if a 50%-effective system hadn’t been in place.
 
Posts: 21240 | Registered: November 05, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
quote:
Originally posted by CD228:
quote:
Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
quote:
Originally posted by corsair:
quote:
Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
Very good news as I see it. AEGIS ashore is a great thing... Might be the only way to shut up the NORK fat boy.


Correct me if I'm wrong as I'm still trying to wrap my head around which system handles what part of the overall BMD, but, I don't think this portion of the test was using Aegis Ashore.
Which ever system that was involved, congratulations to all involved, continued progress on this highly complex task.


Sorry for the misdirect. Aegis Ashore was not involved in this ICBM intercept test, but is another option for ballistic missile defense. I mentioned it because I like the vision involved in re-purpose get the highly successful sea-based Aegis system.

If you go to the MDA's website they discuss Aegis ashore as part of the combined BMD system. I may or may not be protected by an Aegis ashore system as I type this :-).


Overall BMD is a highly complex system requiring a vast array of sensor platforms which need to be integrated to work, not to mention protected from sabotage or, preemptive strike. Aegis at-sea and ashore have been the most successful portion of all the intercept packages, however as I understand it, their ICBM intercept envelope is very narrow and this test was of the problematic Ground Based Interceptors , which again correct me if I'm wrong, is designed to intercept a ICBM BEFORE it's MIRV's separate at the apex of it's flight path.

Not saying you are wrong at all, just pointing out that it's a multipart system.
 
Posts: 4586 | Location: Where ever Uncle Sam Sends Me | Registered: March 05, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Political Cynic
Picture of nhtagmember
posted Hide Post
Lil Kim has been sabre rattling with his little missiles

we just showed him how effective our fly swatter is

Lil Kim probably pissed himself not expecting that we can do that to his toys

it was done for public consumption but with a very specific viewer in mind



[B] Against ALL enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC


 
Posts: 53176 | Location: Tucson Arizona | Registered: January 16, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
women dug his snuff
and his gallant stroll
posted Hide Post
BBMW, you do realize that our missile defense system is multi-layered right? We have boost phase interceptors, such as SM-3 and THAAD. There have been numerous stories lately of new THAAD installations in South Korea and about more missile cruisers patrolling the waters around North Korea. Then we GMD interceptors which are designed to obliterate a target when it's exo-atmospheric.
 
Posts: 10823 | Registered: August 12, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Just because you can,
doesn't mean you should
posted Hide Post
He has to have the missile capability and something to put onto it.
Those things he is blowing up underground are not something you can put on a missile, even if he had an ICBM today. Getting from where he is to where he wants to be gets harder each step.
I would also think we have stuff that we are not advertising.


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Posts: 9503 | Location: NE GA | Registered: August 22, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I feel really sure that we are not telling anyone ALL of the defense systems that have been developed. This is just one, and it seems to have worked!!
 
Posts: 6616 | Location: Az | Registered: May 27, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by GT-40DOC:
I feel really sure that we are not telling anyone ALL of the defense systems that have been developed. This is just one, and it seems to have worked!!

Quick, hide the lasers :-)
 
Posts: 4586 | Location: Where ever Uncle Sam Sends Me | Registered: March 05, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Banned
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More defense billions down the drain with a system with a 50 percent success in staged testing.
I was fine with MAD, since with ICBMs you know where they came from and even Little Kim knows one boomer in the Pacific can fry his entire country in retaliation.
Besides, if we're ever attacked it will be by a cobbled together warhead inside a Mark V shipping container.
 
Posts: 1400 | Location: Butte, Mont. | Registered: May 31, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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