Townhall.com
Walter Williams
April 18, 2018

When World War II ended, Washington, D.C.'s population was about 900,000; today it's about 700,000. In 1950, Baltimore's population was almost 950,000; today it's around 614,000. Detroit's 1950 population was close to 1.85 million; today it's down to 673,000. Camden, New Jersey's 1950 population was nearly 125,000; today it has fallen to 77,000. St. Louis' 1950 population was more than 856,000; today it's less than 309,000. A similar story of population decline can be found in most of our formerly large and prosperous cities. In some cities, population declines since 1950 are well over 50 percent. In addition to Detroit and St. Louis, those would include Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

During the 1960s and '70s, academic liberals, civil rights advocates and others blamed the exodus on racism -- "white flight" to the suburbs. However, since the '70s, blacks have been fleeing some cities at higher rates than whites. It turns out that blacks, like whites, want better and safer schools for their kids and don't like to be mugged or have their property vandalized. Just like white people, if they have the means, black people can't wait for moving companies to move them out.

At the heart of big-city exoduses is a process that I call accumulative decay. When schools are rotten and unsafe, neighborhoods become run-down and unsafe, and city services decline, the first people to leave are those who care the most about good schools and neighborhood amenities and have the resources to move. As a result, cities lose their best and ablest people first. Those who leave the city for greener pastures tend to be replaced by people who don't care so much about schools and neighborhood amenities or people who do care but don't have the means to move anywhere else. Because the "best" people -- those who put more into the city's coffer than they take out in services -- leave, politicians must raise taxes and/or permit city services to deteriorate. This sets up the conditions for the next round of people who can do better to leave. Businesses -- which depend on these people, either as employees or as customers -- also begin to leave. The typical political response to a declining tax base is to raise taxes even more and hence create incentives for more businesses and residents to leave. Of course, there's also mayoral begging for federal and state bailouts. Once started, there is little to stop the city's downward spiral.

Intelligent mayors could prevent, halt and perhaps reverse their city decline by paying more attention to efficiency than equity. That might be politically difficult. Regardless of any other goal, mayors must recognize that their first order of business is to retain what economists call net positive fiscal residue. That's a fancy term for keeping those people in the city who put more into the city's coffers, in the form of taxes, than they take out in services. To do that might require discrimination in the provision of city services -- e.g., providing better street lighting, greater safety, nicer libraries, better schools and other amenities in more affluent neighborhoods.

As one example, many middle-class families leave cities because of poor school quality. Mayors and others who care about the viability of a city should support school vouchers. That way, parents who stay -- and put a high premium on the education of their children -- wouldn't be faced with paying twice in order for their kids to get a good education, through property taxes and private school tuition. Some might protest that city service discrimination is unfair. I might agree, but it's even more unfair for cities, once the magnets of opportunities for low-income people, to become economic wastelands.

Big cities can be revitalized, but it's going to take mayors with guts to do what's necessary to reverse accumulative decay. They must ensure safe streets and safe schools. They must crack down on not only violent crimes but also petty crimes and misdemeanors, such as public urination, graffiti, vandalism, loitering and panhandling.

Link

Add Cincinnati.

1960- 502550
2016- 298800

Correcting social ills in a PC culture will not get you re-elected and it's hard. Easier to blame the boogey man and ride the coaster until it breaks. This all originates at the long ago adopted ideology that voting is about self interest. What can I get?, rather than, what is best for society? Given our rejection of moral codes, we can't even discern what is best for society anymore. the foundational principles that made this country great are completely lost on the next generations and those responsible for teaching them. There is a way out, but it will take generations of struggle.

http://www.oregonlive.com/port...ler_in_talks_to.html

Mayor Ted Wheeler in talks to raise Portland business taxes

Wheeler faces a tough task in proposing the next city budget, given that revenue is higher than ever, but city expenses are growing even faster. Commissioners have dedicated large amounts to the city-county Joint Office of Homeless Services -- funding Wheeler pledged to sustain during last week's State of the City Address. Expensive labor contracts, growing pension contributions and inflation are also raising city costs.

Then there’s San Francisco…

«…San Francisco's visitor's bureau head is begging city officials to clean up the streets, which are allegedly rampant with vagrants and unclean conditions…»

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...s-clean-streets.html

quote:

Originally posted by Pipe Smoker:
Then there’s San Francisco…

«…San Francisco's visitor's bureau head is begging city officials to clean up the streets, which are allegedly rampant with vagrants and unclean conditions…»

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...s-clean-streets.html

I understand San Francisco produces monthly "poop maps".

quote:

. . . Big cities can be revitalized, but it's going to take mayors with guts to do what's necessary to reverse accumulative decay. They must ensure safe streets and safe schools. They must crack down on not only violent crimes but also petty crimes and misdemeanors, such as public urination, graffiti, vandalism, loitering and panhandling. . . .

But to solve the problem they will have to correctly address the cause of the problem, something they refuse to do.

There's a 500lb gorilla in the room no one is talking about, and that's the economic collapse that generally precedes the social collapse.

A lot of these cities had industries that either bailed on them, or just imploded. Look at Detroit with the auto industry. Someone mentioned Cincinnati. Look at what happened to the machine tool industry? Cities like NY and SF haven't collapsed because their economies stayed strong.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
There's a 500lb gorilla in the room no one is talking about, and that's the economic collapse that generally precedes the social collapse.

A lot of these cities had industries that either bailed on them, or just imploded. Look at Detroit with the auto industry. Someone mentioned Cincinnati. Look at what happened to the machine tool industry? Cities like NY and SF haven't collapsed because their economies stayed strong.

Why did those industries collapse in those places?

The world drives more cars now than ever, machine tools must be doing well.

Busineses in those places aren’t competitive. Remember when Lockheed pulled out of Burbank, in favor of Georgia? Inefficiencies, building and expansion restrictions, idiotic labor requiremens, environmental impact reports to move a water fountain, regulations, taxes, etc. Lockheed survived and prospered.

All those factors forced them to do everything but build good cars as efficiently as possible.

Detroit was crushed by Japanese competition who made higher quality cars that were more appropriate to the time (remember the 70's oil crisis?) Cinci (staying with that theme), alo got crushed by the Japanese, who took over the machine tool business.

It was some corporate ineptitude, some union featherbedding, and a lot of hungry hard working foreign labor and management that worked together.

quote:

Originally posted by JALLEN:

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
There's a 500lb gorilla in the room no one is talking about, and that's the economic collapse that generally precedes the social collapse.

A lot of these cities had industries that either bailed on them, or just imploded. Look at Detroit with the auto industry. Someone mentioned Cincinnati. Look at what happened to the machine tool industry? Cities like NY and SF haven't collapsed because their economies stayed strong.

Why did those industries collapse in those places?

The world drives more cars now than ever, machine tools must be doing well.

Busineses in those places aren’t competitive. Remember when Lockheed pulled out of Burbank, in favor of Georgia? Inefficiencies, building and expansion restrictions, idiotic labor requiremens, environmental impact reports to move a water fountain, regulations, taxes, etc. Lockheed survived and prospered.

All those factors forced them to do everything but build good cars as efficiently as possible.

The article points out a simple fact. There are a lot of reasons/conditions that contributed to the decline of some of America's cities, but at its core, I doubt anyone would argue with the simple point:

Rich people pay for everything the government does. Rich people don't want to live in crappy areas. If you don't take care of your rich people, they will move somewhere they like better...and you'll be left with no one to pay the bills.

You need to keep your city attractive to the highest tax payers...period.

ETA: you don't need rich folks if you don't have free loaders. So, I suppose you could also simply make your city Unattractive to freeloaders (anyone who consumes more than they give back by a good amount) and you'll be gtg as well.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
There's a 500lb gorilla in the room no one is talking about, and that's the economic collapse that generally precedes the social collapse.

A lot of these cities had industries that either bailed on them, or just imploded. Look at Detroit with the auto industry. Someone mentioned Cincinnati. Look at what happened to the machine tool industry? Cities like NY and SF haven't collapsed because their economies stayed strong.

When you start talking about the loss of manufacturing in the USA you have to understand the real #1 cause. Lower labor cost was secondary, the big problem was the EPA regulations.
China, Mexico, and a big share of the world do not have much restrictions when it comes to polluting.
That makes a huge difference in the cost produce goods.

Regarding domestic manufacturing drift:

The Japanese cars were better made. The fit and finish and reliability of the Japanese cars were better than the domestic cars of the 70's. Japanese auto workers were paid well and didn't drink their lunch. Our domestic manufacturing did not upgrade to make a better product and customers fled to those who had quality and value. I was in the woodworking business. My first exposure to European cabinet hardware and machinery was in the '80's. The Germans and Italians made a better mousetrap. Consider the screws in the machine for instance: The Germans used fine threaded, flush fit hex-head screws. Americans (and Canadians) used stove bolts. I bought several hundred thousands of dollars worth of German and Italian machines that were just not made in the USA. We have a member here that sometimes shows a picture of his Altendorf sliding table panel saw. Now he is buying a CNC router. It won't be American either, as ours are inferior copies of the Italian models.

The issue is a little more complex than this article implies.
For example some cities like Atlanta have had tremendous growth in the area but population living (not just working) within the actual city limits looks much different.
As time went on the downtown property became more expensive and was redeveloped to higher price commercial properties while residential mostly moved out to the suburbs due to better value. Private residences got squeezed out largely by price.
I'm not saying it was run that well and didn't share many of the same problems of poor governance. Higher taxes, crime, poor education, expensive cost of living all had an effect too. But the area population increased tremendously just outside the city limits.
We aren't Detroit, or a city that was so focused on one particular industry that decline parallelled that industry's decline.

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:
There's a 500lb gorilla in the room no one is talking about, and that's the economic collapse that generally precedes the social collapse.

A healthy culture, and attitude will lead to turnover, and replacement, rather than being abandoned.

That, and just like companies, don't get locked into a product, get locked onto a skill set.

quote:

Originally posted by esdunbar:
Rich people pay for everything the government does. Rich people don't want to live in crappy areas. If you don't take care of your rich people, they will move somewhere they like better...and you'll be left with no one to pay the bills.

You need to keep your city attractive to the highest tax payers...period.

Talking like that will get you lynched... Next thing you know, supporting a death tax to force successful private companies, able to plan on a generational scale, to fire sale to Wall St, isn't a sound economic policy.

Orlando -

1960 88,135
2016 277,173

quote:

Originally posted by BBMW:Cities like NY and SF haven't collapsed because their economies stayed strong.

You're not wrong but, each city has it's own cases. NYC has stayed strong because there's an active shipping industry on the blue collar-side, to go along with being the media, legal and financial hub for the country. Lastly tourism adds a major chunk to the coffers and employs a major percentage in hospitality, food service & retail sectors.
SF's economy benefited because of what Silicon Valley lacked. Every 20-something that moved across country to work at a tech/software company realized that San Jose and the surrounding area was...a massive bedroom community. Moving to SF where office space was in great surplus gave those employees nightlife, restaurants and at the time, realistic housing. Now, that prices are through the roof, said companies are moving out of the area if not out of state, where their employees can afford to buy a home/condo and maintain a realistic standard of living. There are very little blue-collar jobs outside of hospitality & food service, so when the tech exodus gets into gear, there's gonna be a rude awakening.

I think what we can all agree on, is these big city mayors are so caught up in their own moralistic crusades that they've lost sight of the purpose of their job and where they can be most effective. Fix the roads, fix the plumbing, keep the lights on and keep the job prospects varied as you interact and welcome new businesses big & small. You get these mayors who do nothing to improve the public spaces, then demonize business, said business leave, then employees leave, then mayor cries racism and white-flight, meanwhile, said public spaces are de-facto campgrounds for homeless, drug addicts and the mentally ill.

Indianapolis
1960 476,258
2016 855,164